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STATES:
JAMMU & KASHMIR
Mission
Kashmir
The Indian
cease-fire offer during Ramzan is a bid to foster peace. But it could
also unleash fresh violence.
By
Ramesh Vinayak
For
Muslims across the world, Ramzan is a period of fasting and prayers. Come
November 26, when this year's Ramzan begins, the people of Jammu and Kashmir
will also pray. Only, they will do so for the success of the unilateral
cease-fire against anti-militancy operations declared by India.
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| Bodies
of truck drivers killed in Banihal after the cease-fire announcement |
Four months
after a short-lived but much-bloodied cease-fire by Pakistan-backed Hizb-ul
Mujahideen ended in a fiasco, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's truce
offer-the first by a government in the decade-long Kashmir militancy-marks
a new beginning; one that is loaded more with apprehension than optimism.
Touted as
a bold initiative, the Centre's olive branch is a risky gambit, which
became evident soon after it was unveiled. Jehadi outfits vied with each
other not just to rubbish Delhi's offer but, more alarmingly, to issue
threats of stepped-up violence in Kashmir. Spearheading the rejection
was the United Jehad Council, the Pakistan-based umbrella organisation
of 14 Kashmiri militant outfits, headed by Hizb-ul Mujahideen chief Syed
Salahuddin. Not to be left behind, Pakistan too dubbed the latest peace
overture "tactical manoeuvring by India".
In view
of the negative reaction by the jehadi groups, the Ramzan truce runs the
risk of provoking more militant violence. A day after the Government declared
the cessation of any action, militants gunned down five truck drivers
near Banihal. "The peace initiative will fuel desperation in militant
ranks," says state Director-General of Police Gurbachan Jagat. The
prime minister has, however, asserted that there is no going back on the
cease-fire. "The new initiative has set off rumblings among the militant
ranks and this is what we intended to achieve," said Vajpayee.
According
to Delhi's calculations, the latest gamble is not a losing proposition.
Any escalation in militant attacks during the truce period will ensure
mileage for it on the diplomatic and political fronts. "The pitfalls
are local but the gains are global," says a senior security official
in Srinagar. For the security forces on the ground the Ramzan gesture
boils down to cessation of only offensive operation, without the lowering
of guard. Anti-insurgency operations will certainly not lose momentum
in the militant-infested hinterland close to the Line of Control (LoC).
Even the
separatist All-Party Hurriyat Conference (APHC), ostensibly sensing the
public mood, was circumspect; it termed Delhi's peace overture a "reflection
of a positive change in the mindset" of the Indian Government. "Vajpayee's
cease-fire is a qualitatively better opportunity to break the logjam,"
says Hurriyat Chairman Abdul Ghani Bhat, "but if it is only an ornamental
gesture, it is bound to boomerang."
Implicit
in the "truce-and-talk" game plan is an attempt to pick up the
threads of conciliation with the Kashmiri hardliners and to show up Pakistan
as a major stumbling block in evolving a "homegrown" solution
to the Kashmir problem. It is a calculated move seeking to go beyond security
efforts but timed opportunely with Ramzan to make a point before the country's
Muslim community as well as the Islamic nations.
"An
Act of Faith": Vajpayee's initiative has stemmed from the Track
Two spadework and signals of moderation emanating from the Hurriyat ranks.
It's not a coincidence that the truce offer was preceded by selective
placatory gestures towards the Hurriyat leaders. While former APHC chairman
Mirwaiz Omar Farooq and senior leader Abbas Hussain Ansari were given
permission to attend the Organisation of Islamic Countries meet, senior
APHC leader Abdul Ghani Lone was allowed to attend the much-publicised
marriage of his son with the daughter of Pakistan-based Jammu and Kashmir
Liberation Front chief Amanullah Khan in Rawalpindi. "It's an act
of faith," Kashmir Governor G.C. Saxena told India Today. "The
underlying idea is to expand the constituency of peace and isolate the
spoilers."
A contributing
factor is indeed the shift among Hurriyat moderates, who in deviation
from their "no-Pakistan-no-talks" stance, are not averse to
breaking bread with Delhi in a bilateral mode, at least to begin with.
It is not insignificant that Lone was the first Hurriyat leader to endorse
the truce and advise militants to grab the offer. And he did so while
still in Pakistan. "Vajpayee's gesture is a major opportunity which
should not be lost at any cost," says Jamaat-e-Islami chief Ghulam
Mohammad Bhat. "It could be a stepping stone for a dialogue."
Bhat's reaction, however, is in sharp contrast to pro-Pakistan Jamaat
ideologue Syed Ali Shah Geelani's "truce-no-solution" stand.
Delhi is
apparently counting on such contradictions to bring moderate Hurriyat
leaders to the negotiating table. Given that their hawkish collective
public posturing is at variance with the individual stances, the Government
is also toying with the idea of engaging Hurriyat leaders separately rather
than as a collective entity. Not many in Kashmir have missed the renewed
efforts by certain Hurriyat constituents to firm up their support base.
Lone, the point man in Track Two efforts, was the first to hold a public
rally of his People's Conference last month after many years.
Indications
are that Lone may emerge as the rallying point for pro-dialogue elements.
The Hurriyat's calibrated response to the Ramzan truce is an attempt to
steer clear of charges of intransigence on one hand and militant retribution
on the other. Its guarded endorsement of Vajpayee's gesture is not without
a rider: India must accept Kashmir as a disputed territory. This stance
has always raised Delhi's hackles and is bound to be a hurdle in the renewed
efforts to get the Hurriyat into a talking mode.
Though Chief
Minister Farooq Abdullah hinted at "bigger steps" if the truce
worked, militants are refusing to bite the bait. The most productive result
for the Government would be that the Hurriyat's positive posturing may
spur Kashmiri militant outfits to have second thoughts.
Despite
the high rate of killing of militants since the Hizb's aborted cease-fire,
the security scenario in the Valley continues to be a zero sum game. Militant
ranks continue to swell because of the unabated infiltration from Pakistan-Occupied
Kashmir under the cover of an intensified shelling on the loc by Pakistan,
which in certain sectors has shown a twofold increase this year.
Delhi's
next peace moves, possibly an extension of the truce beyond Ramzan and
an invitation to the separatists for talks, hinges on the extent of violence
in the next four weeks. Clearly, Mission Kashmir will require more than
just prayers to achieve a breakthrough.
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