HAMBASTEGI: It is for about half a century that the budget bill is prepared in Iran in a traditional manner. Experience shows that the task of compiling the budget bill has always been affected by influential figures. A considerable rise in the budget of certain institutions such as the Guardians Council (GC), Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) and also different foundations hints at the role of political considerations in drafting the budget. Although the incumbent government had promised to bring about major changes in compilation of the budget, it seems that the 2006-7 budget bill is not that different from the previous ones.

IRAN: After formation of the shadow government by Egypt’s opposition forces, it seems that Egypt has entered a new phase. Leaders of 10 opposition parties have formed a 15-man shadow government and each member will become prime minister for a period of one year. The plain truth is that the establishment of the shadow government is tantamount to new and different political developments in Egypt. The shadow government can be a turning point in the contemporary history of Egypt. The most important advantage of the shadow government is that various Egyptian political parties will have better positions in the future electoral races.

MARDOMSALARI: Since the time when Russia proposed to Iran to carry out its uranium enrichment activities in Russian soil, this issue overshadowed Iran’s nuclear talks with the EU-3. In fact, Russia’s proposal is somehow in line with the attempts by the three European countries to put a halt to Iran’s nuclear activities. It seems that the Russians are pursuing double standards because at one time they support Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear technology and at other times they take side with the Europeans. Iranian diplomats (nuclear negotiators) are presently facing a difficult situation, because although they do not believe in the integrity of the Russian proposal, they are forced to sit at the negotiating table and discuss it.

DONYA-YE EQTESAD: Each year when the budget bill for the next year is presented to the Majlis, a hot discussion over the dollar parity rate begins. Some people believe that the dollar parity rate against the rial should increase. Some other people maintain that the dollar price should come down. There is still a third group who is of the opinion that the dollar exchange rate should remain unchanged. The sad point is that the dollar parity rate has never been determined by adopting a scientific approach. The crux of the matter is that the government’s policy in determining the dollar parity rate has always been focused on keeping the citizens satisfied superficially.

World oil in 2001 grew by close to 5% annually rather than the 2% projected by private oil industry analysis and the international energy agency.
In examining both short- and long-term risks to the oil market, consideration must given to the private government inventories, spare productive capacity and producer diversity in maintaining market equilibrium at moderate levels during the periods of turbulence.
There are now special economic and geopolitical risks associated with addressing the world’s increasing thirst for oil by accepting growing reliance on a single geopolitical area, Persian Gulf, which is fraught with political instability and socioeconomic challenges.
From the energy security point of view, consuming countries benefit when global oil production comes from as diverse a base as possible. Many options exist to enhance the diversity of the world’s oil productive base.
Apart from enhancing technology transfer and encouraging resource development in politicallyÐdifficult regions such as Asia, Africa and Central Asia, great consideration also must be given to the cost and benefits of thwarting upstream oilfield investment in Iran given its prolific resources.
Careful consideration must be given to factors that are now emerging that could potentially change the geopolitics of oil in the next century.
A repeat of 1990 where a real loss of exports from Persian Gulf or elsewhere occurred would wreak havoc on oil markets under current circumstances.
A closure of the Strait of Hormuz, for example, would necessitate the release of government-held strategic stocks in consuming countries.
If Saudi or Iranian supplies were cut off for a period of time, the market reaction would be severe.
The oil market has become globalized in recent years. Oil is no longer sold mainly through exclusive, long-term, fixed price contract arrangement with a handful of major suppliers but rather on a free-market floating price basis with a multitude of players.
The free market environment of the 1990s has broadened the issue of energy security from a national security matter to an international one. For the US, energy security means both guarding the domestic economy and international financial systems. However, energy security is not solely an economic question but enters the realm of the politics to the extent that a large increase in income are distributed to countries that use the money to facilitate their support for terrorist.
By the 21st century, energy security could take on new geopolitical meaning if the predicted changes cause imbalance of resources around the world.
Iran’s challenge to the political balance of power in the Persian Gulf manifests itself in two fashions: through its ideological challenge to the legitimacy of neighboring Arab regimes and through its abilities to pose military challenge to the free passage of oil through the vital Strait of Hormuz.
The real future aggressor and danger in this region seems to be the UAE for its claim over the Iranian islands. I would like to mention that the UAE has one of the worst and undemocratic governments in this region with its political prisoners, the absence of ethical values and principles, human trafficking, child abuse, under-age prostitution, corruption, drug and interference in the political situation of other countries such as Iran.
The three Iranian islands lie close to Persian Gulf lanes and are the center of a territorial dispute between Iran and the undemocratic regime of UAE (its regime is in power with the help of British intelligent service.
Individual Persian Gulf countries have their own plans for energy development and a plan for regional energy policy does not exist, for energy cooperation could serve as a major catalyst for regional development and integration.
The construction of a network of pipelines and associated facilities would provide an immediate economic boost in the region.
Morteza Aminmansour