Oscar contenders: familiar rivalries, fresh faces

Don't expect any surprises when the Academy Award nominations are revealed at 5:30 a.m. on Jan. 25. There's no "Million Dollar Baby" or "Slumdog Millionaire" in the wings poised to eliminate an almost certain best picture nominee. Nor has any dark horse emerged to shake up the acting competition the way Jeff Bridges did last year with "Crazy Heart."

But that doesn't mean the Oscar race won't be spirited. It promises to resurrect some old-fashioned rivalries, pitting mature actors against younger ones - Annette Bening against Natalie Portman, Michelle Williams and possibly Hilary Swank, who already beat Bening twice. "The Social Network," a movie very much of its time about the conception of Facebook, will face "The King's Speech," the steeped-in-history story of King George VI's struggle with a stammer.

The final slate of nominees will depend on academy voters' willingness to sift through small indies like "Winter's Bone" and "Blue Valentine" and the Australian gangster picture "Animal Kingdom" and rate them as equals to major Hollywood productions with 10 times the budget. Here is how the Oscar race is stacking up heading into the final stretch. (Percentage is chance at nomination.)

Best director

These potential nominees come from the independent film world, first getting noticed at the Sundance Film Festival. There's also a generational shift- most of the potential nominees are in their 40s.

David Fincher ("The Social Network," 98 percent)

Christopher Nolan ("Inception," 70 percent)

Darren Aronofsky ("Black Swan," 50 percent)

Tom Hooper ("The King's Speech," 40 percent)

The Fifth Slot: David O. Russell for "The Fighter," Lisa Cholodenko for "The Kids Are All Right" (if for no other reason than to prove last year's winning female director was no fluke), Ben Affleck for "The Town" (proof that Hollywood has accepted him in the directors ranks), Roman Polanski for "The Ghost Writer," Danny Boyle for "127 Hours" and Ethan and Joel Coen for "True Grit."

Best picture

It's stretching it to get to 10 nominees in what has been far from a stellar year for movies.

"The Social Network" (90 percent) For a movie that has been the front-runner since the beginning, it has engendered surprisingly little backlash.

"Inception" (80 percent) One reason for doubling the number of Oscar nominees was because "The Dark Knight" got overlooked. So it's an act of retribution that another cerebral blockbuster from the same director (Christopher Nolan) make the cut this time.

"Toy Story 3" (70 percent) Perfectly realized, superb animation- but does it need more accolades when it's sure to win for best animated feature?

"The King's Speech" (70 percent) Anglophiles aren't the only ones to go gaga over this historical saga. Almost every review brings up its Oscar potential.

"Black Swan" (60 percent) Like the rest of us, academy members will have a hard time getting this bizarre ballet story of ambition run wild out of their mind.

"The Kids Are All Right" (60 percent) This family drama about a lesbian couple proved to be a "Father Knows Best" for the 21st century, becoming one of the year's only indies to reach a sizable audience.

"The Fighter" (50 percent) A cliched story of a boxer on the rise is distinguished by incredible performances.

"The Ghost Writer" (30 percent) Roman Polanski's crisp direction gives this political thriller its edge. But will voters remember a movie that came out in February?

"True Grit" (30 percent) Atmospheric with breathtaking cinematography, the Coen brothers' latest may be hampered by a feeling that this movie didn't need to be remade.

The 10th Slot: "127 Hours," "The Town" or - a real long shot- "The Way Back."

Best actor

Colin Firth may find himself facing Jeff Bridges, his nemesis from last year. But the advantage goes to Firth this time as the stammering King George VI.

Colin Firth ("The King's Speech," 98 percent) The one to beat for his commanding portrayal of an anguished royal.