TV networks' new series not doing well

This is not a season, at least so far, that will have broadcast networks smiling.

There have already been two quick cancellations of freshman series - first, Fox's "Lone Star," then ABC's "My Generation." NBC has ceased production on the Jimmy Smits drama, "Outlaw," which is a face-saving gesture that only delays the inevitable cancellation.

There are no new series in the Top 10. And at this rate, there might not be until midseason arrivals pop up to create more hope.

There are so many potential reasons for the lackluster start to the new fall season (an issue explored more in depth on Wednesday), but at the very heart of the matter is that a multitude of new shows this season have failed to set the hook and truly interest viewers. Audience erosion not only continues across the board, but also plagues a number of returning series, which adds to the unsettled feeling in Los Angeles.

Call it an earthquake of apathy.

The good news is coming in very small doses. Fox was the first network to give a full-season order to a freshman series, endorsing the comedy "Raising Hope," which has performed well but is far from the smash hit the network is hyping it as. ABC is smiling through gritted teeth as "No Ordinary Family" tries to maintain its success (but like most shows, has slid after the premiere). CBS likes what it sees in "Hawaii Five-O" and Tom Selleck's "Blue Bloods." NBC, which has almost nothing to get excited about, will look askance at the slippage and take what "Law & Order: Los Angeles" has to offer. Finally, the CW may not be a network most people glom onto, but it will take the "Nikita" numbers (while wondering when to quietly dump "Life Unexpected").

Although there are a number of shows on the brink of being canceled, some series might buy themselves a couple of weeks of additional airtime because the networks can always argue that the major-league baseball playoffs are skewing the viewing audience. The last vestige of the truly desperate is to point and say, "See, everybody's down because of baseball."

There's also the tricky notion that if a network starts killing its shows in the first couple of weeks it will, ahem, send the wrong message to its audience. Nobody likes to see panic and despair - it undermines confidence in the shows they're actually watching. No doubt NBC's super-hyped series "The Event," which demands loyalty and concentration from week to week, could suffer (more) from jittery viewers thinking NBC is going to pull the plug at any time.

And then there's the more practical aspect of cancellations: Some networks lack a deep bench of replacement series. And what network wants to rush in the reserves so quickly in this atmosphere? (Can you imagine the discussion that the promotion people are having with the bean counters? "So we just spent unholy millions on hyping the other shows you just axed and now you want us to ramp up spending for the new one that will replace it?")

What normally ends up happening after the quick hook comes out is broadcast networks just stick reruns of other shows in those empty slots. That buys a little time and generally bumps up the ratings, but it confuses the viewers. Confusing the viewers is a longtime no-no head-scratcher when applying failure analysis to the networks, but it happens all the time.

With so little ratings joy among the five networks, the question now becomes how to manage the carnage. Small declines can be reversed - and for some that will indeed come after the baseball playoffs. But steep tune-out rates never get erased, historically. Once the key 18-49 demographic (the one sold to advertisers) dips too low, it's over. So it's a matter of time. Can networks suffer viewers' lack of interest into November, where launching a new series makes more sense? Because at this rate, holding on until the holiday season - where reruns are expected and holiday-themed specials fill gaps - looks untenable.

Candidates to be the next to go are NBC's "Undercovers" and "Chase," Fox's "Running Wilde," ABC's "The Whole Truth" and "Detroit 1-8-7." And that's not counting returning series like CBS's "Medium" and Fox's "The Good Guys," etc., that are not performing. Plus, there's a difference between "should be canceled" due to poor ratings and "will be canceled," for reasons mentioned above.

On Wednesday, a deeper look at the core reasons shows are failing, including those on cable.

E-mail Tim Goodman at tgoodman@sfchronicle.com. Follow him at www.twitter.com/bastardmachine.

This article appeared on page E - 1 of the San Francisco Chronicle