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PEG Ratio Nails Down Value Stocks Ryan Barnes, Investopedia 03.08.08, 12:55 PM ET
A stock's price/earnings to growth ratio may not be the first metric that jumps to mind when due diligence or stock analysis is discussed, but most would agree that the PEG ratio gives a more complete picture of stock valuation than simply viewing the price-earnings (P/E) ratio in isolation. (For related reading, see "Move Over, P/E, Make Way For The PEG.") Common stocks represent a claim to future earnings. The rate at which a company will grow its earnings going forward is one of the largest factors in determining a stock's intrinsic value. That future growth rate represents everyday market prices in stock markets around the world. The P/E ratio shows us how much shares are worth compared with past earnings. Most will use 12-month trailing earnings to calculate the bottom part of the P/E ratio. Inferences may be made by looking at the P/E ratio; for instance, high P/E ratios represent growth stocks, while low ones highlight value-oriented stocks. (For more insight, read "Understanding The P/E Ratio.") Special Offer: Jim Oberweis recommended Hansen Natural in June 2004 at $3.15 (split-adjusted). Hansen now trades at $41. Click here to get in early on more rapidly growing companies with a free trial subscription to the Oberweis Report's complete model portfolio. Let's look at two hypothetical stocks to see how the PEG ratio is calculated: ABC Industries has a P/E of 20 times earnings. The consensus of all the analysts covering the stock is that ABC has an anticipated earnings growth of 12% over the next five years. PEG: 20/12 = 1.66 PEG: 30/40= 0.75 --The market's expectation of growth is higher than consensus estimates; or --The stock is currently overvalued due to heightened demand for shares. PEG ratio results of less than 1 suggest one of the following: --Markets are underestimating growth, and the stock is undervalued; or --Analysts' consensus estimates are currently set too low. A great feature of the PEG ratio is that by bringing future growth expectations into the mix, we can compare the relative valuations of different industries that may have very different prevailing P/E ratios. This makes it easier to compare different industries, which tend to each have their own historical P/E ranges. For example, let's compare the relative valuation of a biotech stock to an integrated oil company: Biotech Stock ABC:
Current P/E: 35 times earnings Oil Stock XYZ:
Current P/E: 16 times earnings So, if the S&P; 500 has a current P/E ratio of 16 times trailing earnings and the average analyst estimate for future earnings growth in the S&P; 500 is 12% over the next five years, the PEG ratio of the S&P; 500 would be (16/12), or 1.25. Any data point or metric that uses underlying assumptions can be open to interpretation. This makes the PEG ratio more of a fluid variable and one that is best used in ranges as opposed to absolutes. The reason five-year growth rate estimates are the norm (rather than one-year forward estimates) is to help smooth out the volatility that is commonly found in corporate earnings due to the business cycle and other macroeconomic factors. Also, if a company has little analyst coverage, good forward estimates may be hard to find. The enterprising investor may want to experiment with calculating PEG ratios across a range of earnings scenarios based on the available data and his or her own conclusions. (For more, see "Great Expectations: Forecasting Sales Growth." )
An investor taking just a cursory glance could easily conclude that this is an overvalued stock. The high yield and low P/E make for an attractive stock to a conservative investor focused on generating income. Be sure to incorporate dividend yields into your overall analysis. One trick is to modify the PEG ratio by adding the dividend yield to the estimated growth rate during calculations. To give us a meaningful interpretation of the company's valuation, take a look a look at the following example. This energy utility has an estimated growth rate of about 5%, a 5% dividend yield and a P/E ratio of 12. In order to take the dividend yield into account, you could calculate the PEG like this: P/E/ (Growth Estimates + Yield) = 12/(5+5)= 1.2 Thorough and thoughtful stock research should involve a solid understanding of the business operations and financials of the underlying company. This includes knowing what factors the analysts are using to come up with their growth rate estimates, and what risks exist regarding future growth and the company's own forecasts for long-term shareholder returns. This article is from Investopedia.com, the Web's largest site dedicated to financial education. Click here for more educational articles from Investopedia. Morgan Stanley Next To Walk The Plank More On This Topic
Companies: HANS
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