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Options Investor's Guide To Bowl Games Beth Gaston Moon, Option Advisor 12.22.07, 1:00 PM ET
What's that stench? It's the smell of fierce competition. And that noise? It's trash-talking, as American sports lovers prepare for bowl-game season, with match-ups like Illinois-USC, Michigan-Florida, Ohio State-LSU. After the hustle and bustle of the holidays draws to its inevitable end, it becomes time to fire up the crock pots of chili, put on those foam fingers and root your alma mater (or simply your favorite team) to victory. I'll be tuned in to the Gator Bowl to watch my Virginia Cavaliers take on Texas Tech. It's not part of the Bowl Championship Series, but at least the game is played on New Year's Day. It's not just the collegiate football players and their respective schools that stand to benefit from a bowl-game appearance (payouts range from $300,000 to over $15 million). Companies that sponsor these games get their name in lights and plenty of publicity. That craving for pizza you may get this weekend? Chalk it up to the Papa John's Pizza Bowl, held this afternoon as Southern Miss battles Cincinnati. Special Offer: This week, speculators who bought the Research in Motion $115 December calls could have turned $10,000 into more than $40,000. Earlier this week, $10,000 on Intuitive Surgical $300 December calls turned into $60,000. Click here for both high percentage and high-risk trades in Bernie Schaeffer's Option Advisor.Other sponsors of lower-profile games include Chrysler, Ford Motor (nyse: F - news - people ) and General Motors (nyse: GM - news - people ), which together sponsor the "Motor City Bowl." This year's contestants are Central Michigan and Purdue. Outback Steakhouse (nyse: OSI - news - people ) sponsors an eponymous New Year's Day Bowl, while AT&T; (nyse: T - news - people ) is the matriarch behind the Cotton Bowl, where this year Missouri will take on Arkansas. Auto-parts retailer AutoZone (nyse: AZO - news - people ) is the sponsor of the Liberty Bowl, held this year in Memphis. The University of Central Florida is competing with Mississippi State for a purse of $1.7 million, and AutoZone is competing for some publicity. Turning to shares of AutoZone, technically speaking, the stock is fighting higher after a test of its 50-month moving average. This trend line has proved to be a bastion of solid support on several occasions this decade. In fact, AZO hasn't finished a month below this trend line since February 2001. The shares are now perched back atop their 10-day and 20-day moving averages, to boot. Earlier this month, AZO reported quarterly earnings of $2.02 per share, topping the Street's per-share estimate by 11 cents. By the end of the subsequent trading day, AZO was trading 19% higher and has retained the bulk of these gains despite the general market volatility. Special Offer: AutoZone has been in the model portfolio of the Buyback Letter since 2003 and is up more than 100%. Click here for more undervalued buyback stocks (especially in the retail sector) now in the Buyback Letter premium edition.The Liberty-Bowl sponsor has outperformed the broader market on a 20-day, 40-day and 60-day basis, earning respective relative-strength readings of 113%, 104% and 112% for these time spans. Despite this strong price action, Wall Street hasn't exactly crowded the AZO bandwagon. The latest Thomson One data reveal that there are four "strong buy" ratings on AZO, along with 14 "holds," a "sell" and one "strong sell." These circumstances provide the base for a series of upgrades that could lure in sideline buying power. A backdrop of skepticism can be read as potentially supportive, especially when it coincides with a positive technical trend. Intermediate-term investors can consider a March (in-the-money) 120-call or (out-of-the-money) 125-call. The first week of January begins to bring out the big guns, from a collegiate football perspective. The Fiesta Bowl, sponsored by Tostitos, a part of Frito-Lay--which is under PepsiCo (nyse: PEP - news - people )--kicks things off with Oklahoma and West Virginia on Jan. 2. The Orange Bowl, with FedEx (nyse: FDX - news - people ) at the helm, matches Virginia Tech against Kansas on Jan. 3. And for those who can rally through to Jan. 7, Ohio State will (again) be in the Allstate (nyse: ALL - news - people )-sponsored BCS National Championship Game, with LSU as its worthy opponent. While I've no idea if the Oklahoma Sooners will or won't trump the West Virginia Mountaineers, I do know that parent sponsor PEP stands to benefit, and its attractive stock price is positioned to move even higher. PEP shares have been in uptrending mode since early 2006. This rally has ramped higher in recent months as the stock has utilized the support of its 10-week and 20-week moving averages to press on into all-time high territory. Meet Jim Lowell at the World Money Show Orlando, Feb. 6-9 at the Gaylord Palms Resort, for expert advice on how to build a winning portfolio with ETFs. Receive recommendations that have the potential to maximize the returns of your investing strategy. Register free today.PepsiCo shares have also barreled through the lion's share of overhead call open interest, leaving little concern about options-related resistance, at least for the short term. Options players have taken an especially bearish stance on PEP, actually, as the speculative collective is perhaps attempting to call a top in the shares (always a risky proposition). Schaeffers put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) for PEP currently stands at 1.12, with short-term puts outweighing short-term calls by a modest margin. This ratio is higher than 98% of all SOIR data gleaned during the past 12 months. Should the stock continue its upward trek, this pessimism could begin to unwind as additional buying power. Options players can consider a January 72.50 call or an April 75 call, both of which are in the money. FedEx is sponsoring the bowl at which my alma mater's chief rival, Virginia Tech, will be playing. But that's not the reason I'm taking a bearish stance on the shipping giant. FDX shares reflect the bearish recipe of lackluster price action and anemic fundamentals amid investor optimism. On Dec. 20, the company reported second-quarter earnings of $479 million, or $1.54 per share, compared with the $1.64 per share earned in the year-ago period. What's more, the company lowered its third-quarter earnings outlook below the Street consensus estimate, citing increased fuel prices and a general malaise in the U.S. economy. Special Offer: Don't get burned by solar stocks. Click here for a 30-day free trial subscription to the Forbes Wolfe Emerging Technology Report. Editor and.nanotech investor Josh Wolfe will tell you which solar stocks to put into your portfolio and which to keep out.The shares have been in sharp decline mode since mid-July, after running into chart resistance at the 120 level. In the past four months, the stock has dropped more than 20% and has displayed weak relative strength compared with the S&P; 500 Index. FedEx has also dropped below its 50-month moving average for the first time since late 2001. And yet, options players are thinking the stock has hit rock bottom. Schaeffers SOIR for FDX weighs in at 0.66, a new annual low. Furthermore, eight of the 17 analysts following FDX have named the stock a "buy" or better, leaving nine "hold" ratings and not a single "sell." The stock could be at risk of brokerage downgrades, particularly if it shows no glimmers of recovery. The January or April 100 puts look like attractive plays here. Have happy and safe holiday travels, but don't wear yourself out too much--you've got junk food to eat and a team or two to curse at before New Year's resolutions take hold. Click here for more ideas and recommendations, and to learn more about Bernie Schaeffer's Option Advisor.Send comments and questions to newsletters@forbes.com. More On This Topic
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