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ENGLISH VERSION
Last lap
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VERSIÓN ESPAÑOL
Recta final
Faltando sólo una semana para las elecciones, el resultado ya parece cantado a nivel presidencial al menos para la candidata por el Frente para la Victoria, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, en camino a suceder a su marido el presidente Néstor Kirchner, pero ¿es así realmente? Las encuestas apuntan en su totalidad en un solo sentido, pero ya se han equivocado: efectivamente, el mes pasado predijeron a una victoria fácil para el candidato oficialista Juan Schiaretti en Córdoba y una contienda ajustada en Santa Fe (de hecho, el socialista Hermes Binner tuvo un triunfo abrumador en Santa Fe mientras Schiaretti tuvo que esperar 46 días hasta el jueves pasado ante de que pudiera confirmarse su victoria estrecha).
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With the elections now only one week away, it all seems over bar the shouting at the presidential level at least with Victory Front candidate Cristina Fernández de Kirchner set to succeed her husband President Néstor Kirchner but is it? The opinion polls are all pointing in a single direction but they have been wrong before — indeed only last month when they pointed to an easy win for the ruling party candidate Juan Schiaretti in Córdoba and a tight race in Santa Fe (in fact socialist Hermes Binner romped to victory in Santa Fe while Schiaretti had to wait 46 days until last Thursday before his narrow win could be confirmed). The sheer size of Mrs. Kirchner’s leads could conspire against turnout with too much complacency and too little enthusiasm for voting for a candidate who is not offering any platform beyond the name of her Victory Front party — i.e. winning for its own sake. This will not be enough to prevent her from finishing first next Sunday but it might be just enough to cause her to fall short of the 45 percent a benign constitution stipulates for automatic victory.
This possibility confronts the opposition with its basic dilemma — whether the traditional saying: “United we stand, divided we fall” works for them or whether the inverse version: “Divided we stand, united we fall” is more effective. The inability to present a single alternative to the government has obvious disadvantages but the 16 opposition candidates at least have the virtue of offering an extremely wide range to the 60 percent of the electorate needed to ensure a runoff. Even if the opposition politicians have ruled out the option of a single alternative by placing so many candidates in the field, the electorate can still make it happen if they vote tactically in favour of the candidate most likely to force Mrs. Kirchner into a runoff by finishing within 10 points of her. Although the Civic Coalition’s Elisa Carrió is second in virtually every opinion poll, the most viable alternative is not an automatic choice because ex-minister Roberto Lavagna is well ahead of Carrió among the undecided - Carrió appeals to the centre-right because she correctly senses that her main gains are there but this also vacates the centre-left to the first lady. The fact that the latter’s voter loyalty (80 percent) is so far ahead of both Carrió and Lavagna (both under half) suggests that such tactical thinking is already in the minds of many opposition voters rather than any swing to the Kirchner camp.
But just one week from today, all will be revealed.
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