Egyptians voted Wednesday in national elections in what analysts expect to be another victory for the incumbent President Hosni Mubarak.
Though winds of political change have blown across Egypt with the amendment to Article 76 of the constitution in a May referendum this year, allowing other political parties and contenders to enter the presidential race, it is unlikely that Mubarak’s hold over the reins of power will be seriously challenged by the nine other candidates in the contest.
With Mubarak’s autocratic grip on political power for the last 24 years, there was no chance for political parties to grow or groom leaders who would have been a healthy opposition to the president. The only political group that emerged was the popular Muslim Brotherhood, which could have posed a serious challenge to Mubarak, since it has wide public support and appeal. But long outlawed by the regime, it cannot field a candidate and under the amended constitution, the group has been banned from contesting.
The Brotherhood, which boycotted the referendum on the constitutional amendment, in a statement last month urged its supporters to participate in the presidential elections.
If the group’s wide-spread supporters cast their votes for Mubarak’s rivals, just as the six-non-governmental rights groups, which have called for a boycott or a vote against the president, the election might enter the second round if no candidate polls 50 per cent of the vote. The two candidates with the highest number of votes will then vie for the presidency.
It was not political altruism or to introduce a broad-based democratic process that motivated Mubarak, in a surprise move in February this year, to seek constitutional changes in the presidential polls. Rather it was the growing pressure both from within the country and from the West, particularly close ally and generous aid donor Washington, which had been pushing Cairo to introduce political reforms that forced Mubarak to broaden participation in the presidential elections.
Critics saw the constitutional change as being cosmetic and maintained that it would hardly allow any contender to disrupt Mubarak’s authority, given the labyrinth of rules and regulations in the Egyptian political system that curbs political freedoms.
Mubarak has ruled the North African country since the assassination of Anwar Sadat in 1981, through a presidential referendum on a single candidate approved by the parliament. His National Democratic Party has dominated the Egyptian legislature since the time political parties were restored in Egypt in the seventies, and so it was smooth sailing for Mubarak in the four presidential elections held so far.
Nevertheless, apart from domestic and foreign pressure for reforms, Mubarak has ruled Egypt for too long. If he were sincere about political changes and democracy, he would have announced his retirement from active politics earlier this year and made way for others to take up the executive leadership. This would have made him far more popular than what he is today. He could also have taken on the role of a national leader for life for his contribution to “stability in turbulent times“.
But apparently Mubarak is not going to play a “behind the scene“ role in Egyptian politics.
The boycott calls, the general voter apathy and doubts cast whether the elections would be free and fair, all give the impression that the results are indeed a foregone conclusion -- with Mubarak ensconced in the presidential palace in Cairo for the next six years and plenty of time to groom his son Gamal as the future president.