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Mon, Oct 11, 2004
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Water Deficit Looms Large
By Alireza Abdollah
'Finance Deals' Fizzling Out?

Water Deficit Looms Large
By Alireza Abdollah
Economic analysts believe that water is key to sustainable development as it helps maintain human life.
Water covers more than two-thirds of the Earth's surface. But fresh water represents less than 0.5% of the total water on Earth. The rest is either in the form of seawater or locked up in icecaps or the soil.
Water is continuously moving around the earth and constantly changing its form. It evaporates from land and water bodies and is also produced by all forms of life on Earth. This water vapor moves through the atmosphere, condenses to form clouds and precipitates as rain and snow. In time, the water returns to where it came from, and the process begins all over again. Although water is constantly moving, its total quantity on Earth's surface is constant.

Global Shortage
Water is found in three different forms - liquid, solid or gas, depending on the temperature but it constantly changes from one form to another. Changes in temperature will determine which of these forms predominates in a particular area.
While water resources are renewable, many parts of the world face fresh water shortage due to upsurge in demand for potable water in the wake of the increase in human population and pollution of underground water resources.
Future supply of fresh water is one of the greatest concerns of decision-makers all over the world. Very many seminars and conferences are held in the four corners of the globe to see into possible ways to cope with more severe water shortages in the future.


Critical
According to FAO, the climate of Iran is one of great extremes due to its geographic location and varied topography. The summer is extremely hot with temperatures in the interior rising possibly higher than anywhere else in the world-- certainly over 558C has been recorded. In winter, however, the high altitude of much of the country and its continental situation result in far lower temperatures than one would expect to find in a country in such low latitudes. Minus 308C can be recorded in the northwest and minus 208C is common in many places.
Annual rainfall ranges from less than 50 mm in the deserts to more than 1,600 mm on the Caspian Plain. The average annual rainfall is 240.7 mm (2004 estimate) and approximately 90% of the country is arid or semiarid. Overall, about two-thirds of the country receives less than 240 mm of rainfall per year.
The Office of Basic Water Resources Studies at the Iran Water Resources Management Company has reported that this year's drought has provoked critical water shortages in four provinces: Sistan & Baluchestan, Hormozghan, Kerman, and Yazd. Bushehr, Khorasan, and Fars provinces are facing severe water shortages, the next category after critical.
By international standards, however, Iran has entered the critical stage of water shortage. With a population of 66.3 million (2003 estimate), Iran assumes less than one percent of global population. It only has two percent of fresh water resources, though.
Energy Ministry statistics suggest that the upsurge in potable water consumption in Iran is nearly twice the country's population growth rate. Hence, the country is expected to face severe water shortages in the years to come.
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Two-thirds of the country receives less than 240 mm of rainfall per year.
Resources
Iran, according to FAO, can be divided into the following major river basins: Central Plateau in the middle, Lake Orumieh basin in the northwest, Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman in the west and south, Lake Hamoun basin in the east, Kara-Kum basin in the north-east and Caspian Sea basin in the north. With an area of 424,240 sq km, the Caspian Sea is the largest landlocked water body in the world and its surface lies about 22 meters below sea level.
Experts are of the opinion that the huge population growth in the past four decades has reduced per capita reserves of fresh water from 7,000 cubic meters in 1956 to 2,160 cubic meters in 1996.
The Energy Ministry experts fear the figure would come down further to 1,300 cubic meters in 2021.
That is, in a 65-year period, Iran's fresh water resources would decline to one-fifths.
Some experts blame inadequate precipitations and wide climatic diversity for water shortages in Iran. Some others blame poor water resource management for the same.
Nonetheless, improper precipitations do certainly have a huge impact on water resources. Some 70 percent of precipitations are in 25 percent of the country. That is, one-fourth of Iran's population has access to 70 percent of fresh water resources.
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Fresh water represents less than 0.5% of the total water on Earth.
Global Standing
Abdorreza Hosseini-Far, director general of the Energy Ministry's surface waters exploitation department, says there is only 25 percent of precipitation in the irrigation season in Iran, while some 59 percent of Iran's arable lands are under wet farming. The same figure is 16 percent worldwide.
"In Iran, wet farming is responsible for 89 percent of agro products and dry farming accounts for 11 percent. These figures are 40 and 60 in the world," he added.
The official told Iran Daily that Iran has so far utilized 74 percent of its exploitable water resources by constructing several dams and water supply networks, whereas the same figure stands at 55 percent in the world.
Many experts believe that apart from inadequate precipitation, improper climatic conditions and high population growth, water pollution and excessive consumption are two main factors that play a substantial role in reducing Iran's fresh water resources. In many parts of the country, fresh water is still used for irrigating farmlands.
Official statistics suggest that every Iranian consumes 140 liters of fresh water per day, which is almost twice the international norm.

Ultimate Solution
Experts say the best mechanism for fighting the prevailing water crisis is to improve water consumption patterns in accordance with international standards.
Public education and utilization of other countries' relevant experiences could also be helpful to this effect.
It also seems vital to have fresh and agro waters separated in order to enrich the potable water reserves. Moreover, finalizing the Comprehensive Water Strategy, constructing dams, encouraging private investments in water projects, creating modern irrigation systems, etc., are amongst other mechanisms that could be useful.
Loans extended by the Islamic Development Bank and the World Bank could also help develop water projects across Iran.
Experts are of the opinion that joint projects with other countries would contribute largely to efforts to bring surface waters under control in border areas.
The Friendship Dam, which is being constructed by Iranian engineers on the border with Turkmenistan, the recent memorandum of understanding signed with Afghanistan on water cooperation and the ongoing talks with Azerbaijan on the construction of a dam on the Aras River, which marks the two countries' borders, are instances of regional water cooperation Iran has embarked on in recent years.

Karoun-Rafsanjan Project
The project to transfer 200 million cubic meters of water per annum from Karoun River in the southwestern province of Khuzestan to the southern city of Rafsanjan and the central desert city of Qom, has topped the Energy Ministry's agenda, despite strong opposition from local people, experts and lawmakers.
Environmental experts are of the opinion that the transfer of water to Rafsanjan and other desert areas would give rise to evaporation of water and lead to serious environmental concerns.
They also believe that the initiative would cause damage to the Karoun River's ecosystem, stressing that Khuzestan already faces severe water shortages, which would be intensified if the Karoun water were channeled to Rafsanjan and Qom.
Nevertheless, Energy Minister Habibollah Bitaraf and his deputies have been saying in recent months that the project will serve national interests. The project has reportedly been launched.
Reza Ardakanian, deputy energy minister for water affairs, says there are some 543 million cubic meters of surplus waters in Khuzestan.
"Iran is a semiarid country with improper distribution of fresh water resources, which is why we need to implement water transfer projects" he observes.

'Finance Deals' Fizzling Out?
Uncertainty clouds the status of economic plans ostensibly to be funded through financial deals -- once deemed as the ultimate solution to lingering development projects.
Note 3 of the budget laws for three consecutive years between 2002-2005 had envisaged that up to 10 percent of funds needed for implementation of national projects be provided through finance deals.
No effective action was taken in this regard due to the absence of a related executive by-law.
According to a commentary published in Persian daily Sharq, the idea to pay for development and infrastructure schemes was initially proposed by the Management and Planning Organization so as to streamline project completion.
After prolonged debates, the cabinet finally agreed to facilitate the legal means for some portion of funds to be acquired through this specific method on the grounds that private contractors were willing to undertake execution of development projects in return for satisfactory amount of payment.
Accordingly, executive bodies were authorized to secure up to 85 percent of credits for development schemes through private funds. The government was to repay the debt.
The first schemes to be funded through such deals were plans to construct two dams: Kamal Saleh Dam and Galaber Zanjan Dam.
Participants taking part in tender sessions for selecting the contractor were insistent that successful handling of key projects necessitated extensive banking facilities due to limited financial capabilities of the private sector.
Consequently, the Central Bank of Iran announced it was ready to lend up to 78 percent of funds for construction of Kamal Saleh Dam.
The money was to be retuned to the bank after five years and within a two-year period plus interest rates of 18 and 23 percents for the first and second year respectively. The winner of the tender was given a letter from the bank as a repayment guarantee.

Change of Mind
In an unexpected move, the Central Bank of Iran soon issued a notice to all banks banning them from rendering financial and credit assistance, of any kind, to projects under the name of 'finance deals'.
The issue was taken to the Credit and Monetary Council.
It was finally decided that only those put under the banner of 'national projects' be funded this way.
It was decided that the two dams be funded through the banking finance scheme at an interest rate of 21 percent rather than the initial figure, which was 23.
Bank-e Refa-e Kargaran (Laborers Welfare Bank) was named as the agent, by the Central Bank of Iran. The bank's main shareholder is Social Security Organization, which is a semi-public entity.
The projects got underway and have made good progress thanks to timely flow of required cash.
No decision has been made as to schemes also listed as national projects and due to be funded through finance banking.

Suspended Plans
The aim behind a finance deal was to expedite project implementation.
As mentioned, the method was considered an effective way to reduce the duration of implementation of development plans, the prolongation of which has imposed heavy costs on the government.
The basic notion behind such deals was execution of national development and infrastructure plans by private parties under the condition that the government pays the expenses after their timely completion.
The government also pledged to cover any extra expenses and also make up for delay in cash delivery in the form of profits.
Masterminds of finance deals were hoping this would allow each state organization to mop up 10 percent of funds for development plans through this method. This meant each body could provide the funds for 10 plans valued above 100 billion rials on an annual basis.
But what does it have for banks as the financer? Has the government improvised the same incentives for the financer as well?
Banks, as economic corporations, opt for higher profits.
So, they would prefer to invest their money in more profitable and low risk sectors.
The banking system hasn't welcomed the finance-deal initiative because it has been categorized as part of their obligatory facilities and is highly risky, making them prone to huge losses.
Has the state's good intention to speed up development plans through finance deals fizzled out? Ground realities say so.