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ENGLISH VERSION
Inflation, what inflation?
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VERSIÓN ESPAÑOL
¿De qué inflación me hablan?
Cualquier esperanza de que las repercusiones de la “profunda preocupación acerca de la inflación” que expresara el pasado jueves el Presidente del Banco Central Martín Redrado fueran tapadas por el bátacazo peronista en Chaco durante el fin de semana (a menos que hubiera nuevas sorpresas gracias a algún recuento) fue prontamente destruida esta semana por las insistentes desmentidas del Presidente Néstor Kirchner de la naturaleza inflacionaria del crecimiento provocado por el consumo. Como siempre, Kirchner supone que todo se trata de él, pero de esa forma no entiende el sentido del debate que generan las palabras de Redrado. De hecho, como Redrado intentaba explicar, la generosa liquidez de los últimos años (ostensiblemente un factor tan importante del crecimiento de la Argentina como el auge en los precios de las materias primas) ha llevado a que la inflación se convirtiera en la principal de las preocupaciones de los presidentes de los bancos centrales en todo el mundo hasta que la crisis de iliquidez de los créditos de alto riesgo llevó a que esta semana se redujeran las tasas de interés en los Estados Unidos.
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Any doubts about the repercussions of Central Bank President Martín Redrado’s “worries about inflation” last Thursday being buried by the upset Peronist win in Chaco during the weekend (barring any fresh surprises via recounts) were promptly dispelled this week by President Néstor Kirchner’s insistent denials that consumer-led growth is inflationary. As always, Kirchner assumes that it is all about him but he thus misses the point which the debate sought by Redrado seeks to raise. In fact, as Redrado was trying to explain, the lush liquidity of recent years (arguably as big a factor in Argentina’s bumper growth as the commodity price boom) has led to concern about inflation being uppermost among central bank chiefs worldwide until the subprime credit crunch led to this week’s reduction of interest rates in the United States. Whether knowingly or not, Redrado would seem to have cut off his own transfer to the Economy Ministry, at best establishing his credentials to remain at the Central Bank helm — at best because banishing a Central Bank delegation from the presidential aircraft (and perhaps even Tuesday’s Central Bank fire) suggests a vindictive attitude. But if Redrado is finally allowed to continue a term which runs until 2011, this could even be apposite to Kirchner’s purposes with a three-cornered division of economic stewardship (with current Economy Minister Miguel Peirano assigned to production, former Central Bank president Mario Blejer given finances and Redrado remaining in charge of monetary policy) because Kirchner would thus emerge as his wife’s real economy minister in the event of her victory.
As usual, Kirchner wants it both ways, seeking to stimulate an economy which has already recovered beyond reflation without inflation. In the interests of ensuring his wife’s election, he has embarked on a reckless incomes policy which has raised the minimum wage, family benefits, pensions and the income tax exemption ceiling while at the same time smiling on aggressive collective wage bargaining by the trade unions well beyond even the authentic inflation figures (even if Kirchner’s denial of the inflationary consequences of consumer-led growth were made in the presence of CGT chief Hugo Moyano’s union arch-rival Armando Cavalieri).
Redrado’s legitimate worries about inflation were expressed to the wider world of an international conference in London — Kirchner’s comments aimed at domestic galleries might have the excuse of elections little more than five weeks away but throughout the last four years, when has immediate popularity not been the aim of his economic policy statements?
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