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ENGLISH VERSION
Rotten to the CoL?
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| HERALD STAFF |
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VERSIÓN ESPAÑOL
¿Podrido hasta los cálculos?
El aspecto más interesante del anuncio del INDEC sobre la inflación de septiembre no fue el porcentaje demasiado previsible (0,8, la mitad de la cifra verdadera), sino las insinuaciones adicionales de un cambio en el método de calcular la inflación. Después de haber recurrido de manera persistente a lo largo de este año (y de hecho desde que Guillermo Moreno se convirtió en el secretario de comercio interior 18 meses atrás) a toda clase de recursos ilícitos a fin de controlar los datos del costo de vida, el gobierno parece haber descubierto en forma tardía medios legítimos mediante las técnicas de “core inflation” (inflación subyacente) empleadas en los Estados Unidos
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The most interesting aspect about the announcement of September inflation by the INDEC statistics bureau was not the all too predictable figure (0.8 percent or about half the truth) but the accompanying suggestions of a change in the method of calculating inflation. After having persistently resorted throughout this year (and indeed ever since Guillermo Moreno became domestic trade secretary 18 months ago) to all kinds of foul means in order to tame the cost-of-living data, the government would seem to have belatedly discovered fair means in the form of the “core inflation” techniques employed in the United States. These have been designed to strip price index measurements from any undue influence from oil-rich rogue states or seasonal factors (for example, perishable foods or holidays). The beauty of this system would be that it would silence the mounting criticism of INDEC’s crude price manipulation (a criticism which extends to most trade unionists and even Mothers of Plaza de Mayo leader Hebe de Bonafini, not to mention the doubts in the minds of millions of voters) without the need to bring down inflation via austerity policies such as higher interest rates (or pay debt bond-holders more generously for that matter).
Yet these newfound fair means of achieving a more civilized inflation rate are already being announced in a way which leads many people to suspect foul. These new methods (which were put forward by Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s running-mate, Mendoza Governor Julio Cobos of Radical background, rather than by any Peronist) will be a true test of the “better institutional quality” promised by Mrs. Kirchner. A genuine introduction of North American statistical techniques would be a tremendous “confidence shock” for the presidential frontrunner but these techniques hinge so much on the discretionary element of defining exactly which prices should be included or excluded as seasonal, artificial, etc. that setting the criteria must be entrusted to a neutral body (in the cases of both the North American giants their central banks suffice for this purpose but even that may not be enough in Argentina). If the task of defining “core inflation” were entrusted to INDEC or some new Moreno, the credibility gains would be slight indeed.
But whatever the suspicions, these techniques represent a refreshing innovation when compared to Mrs. Kirchner’s only concrete proposal thus far of a “social pact” (which looks suspiciously like the wage-price freeze negotiated by the Peronist economy minister José Ber Gelbard who died 30 years ago last Thursday, only to end in stratospheric inflation in his last months). By all means let us go further in debating the reform of inflation calculation methods.
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