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Inflation, what inflation? III
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VERSIÓN ESPAÑOL
¿De qué inflación me hablan? III
La primera dama Cristina Fernández de Kirchner puede haberse negado a contestar preguntas sobre la inflación en el encuentro con inversores del miércoles en Nueva York, y el jefe de Gabinete Alberto Fernández puede insistir en que la inflación “no existe”, pero hay demasiadas cifras de inflación en la provincia de Mendoza al menos. El gobierno parece estar en un estado de negación en cuanto a la discrepancia manifiesta entre la cifra de inflación del 3,1 por ciento para agosto calculada a nivel provincial y la cifra del 1,5 por ciento publicada finalmente por el INDEC entre los datos nacionales, sin proporcionar mejores explicaciones que “un error administrativo” y la interna dentro del partido radical en el poder en Mendoza. Pero por incómodo que sea para el gobierno, al encontrarse el matrimonio presidencial en Nueva York y al ser el gobernador de Mendoza Julio Cobos (expulsado del partido radical este mismo mes) el compañero de fórmula de la señora de Kirchner, el escándalo no desaparecerá tan fácilmente.
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First lady Cristina Fernández de Kirchner might have refused to field any questions concerning inflation in Wednesday’s encounter with investors in New York and Cabinet Chief Alberto Fernández might have insisted that inflation “does not exist” but all too many figures exist for inflation in the province of Mendoza at least. The government seems to be in a state of denial concerning the glaring discrepancy between the 3.1 percent August inflation figure calculated at provincial level and the 1.5 percent figure finally published by INDEC statistics bureau in the national data, producing no better explanations than “an administrative error” and factional infighting within Mendoza’s ruling Radical party. But however uncomfortable it might be for the government with the presidential couple in New York and Mendoza Governor Julio Cobos (expelled from the Radical party only this month) as Mrs. Kirchner’s running-mate, the scandal will not go away so easily.
The trouble with the inflation data of even one province is that once INDEC loses its credibility (which it in fact lost long ago with constant data manipulation throughout the year), nobody lends credence to any figure — disastrous for an administration whose main claim to success is a stream of glowing economic data over the last four years. Thus the figures showing this year’s growth to be barely below the nine percent average of the previous three years are increasingly coming under suspicion. This skepticism towards statistics extends not only to INDEC but also to opinion polls — their forecasts of a runaway victory for Mrs. Kirchner next month contrast with the patchy results in the two-thirds of the provinces which have already voted.
The government’s denial of the inflation problem would be more understandable if it were a supernatural force entirely beyond its control but it has various policy options to fight inflation honestly and genuinely rather than these pathetically mendacious attempts to fool people at least until the elections. Deliberate choices have been made in monetary and incomes policies which have led to some impressive benefits in terms of consumer-led growth and an exchange rate which fosters agricultural exports while protecting an immature industry from global competition but these policies also carry a price-tag in the form of inflation. Corrective action is obviously the best response but even some policy signals from Mrs. Kirchner at Wednesday’s Council of the Americas lunch with investors might have helped — instead she only assented to answer friendly or vague questions on the role of women in business, education, micro-credits and future problems. But no problems are solved by not answering the questions.
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