|
|
Home
> Editorial
> Inflation, what inflation? II
|
ENGLISH VERSION
Inflation, what inflation? II
|
| |
 |
| HERALD STAFF |
|
|
VERSIÓN ESPAÑOL
¿De qué inflación me hablan? II
¿Acaso el jefe de Gabinete Alberto Fernández demoró su partida hacia Nueva York para acompañar al matrimonio presidencial con el objeto exclusivo de intentar convencernos que la inflación “no existe”? De ser así, su declaración provocadora desafiaba no sólo más del 90 por ciento de la opinión pública sino también las palabras del presidente del Banco Central, Martín Redrado, tan sólo 10 días antes. Fernández basó su argumento en la definición estándar de inflación como un aumento sostenido y generalizado de los precios de bienes y servicios, y podría defenderse este argumento con la lógica perversa de la política económica del gobierno al menos: gracias a las tarifas congeladas de servicios, los “acuerdos” de precios a los que se llegó por coerción y las cifras manipuladas del INDEC (con mediciones de inflación mucho más altas para el interior), es imposible que los precios aumenten al unísono. De esta manera, la afirmación escandalosa de Fernández puede tener su lógica retorcida, pero no se basa en modo alguno en la realidad: los precios en aumento forman una parte demasiado grande de la experiencia cotidiana de los consumidores para que Fernández pueda engañar a alguien con que la inflación es un invento de los medios.
Lea más
|
|
|
Did Cabinet Chief Alberto Fernández delay his departure to New York to accompany the presidential couple exclusively for the purpose of trying to convince us that inflation “does not exist?” If so, his provocative statement was flying in the face of not only at least 90 percent of public opinion but the words of Central Bank President Martín Redrado only 10 days previously. Fernández based his argument on the standard definition of inflation as a sustained increase in the prices of goods and services across the board and this argument would be upheld by the perverse logic of the government’s economic policy at least — thanks to frozen utility rates, price “agreements” obtained under duress and the fiddled figures of INDEC statistics bureau (with far higher inflation readings inland), there is no chance of prices rising in unison. The outrageous claim of Fernández may thus have its warped logic but no basis in reality — rising prices are too much the everyday experience of all shoppers for Fernández to be able to fool anybody that inflation is a media invention.
This provocative utterance has received far more media coverage than the August trade figures but the latter are also interesting because they show a potential antidote to inflation which also gives rise to new problems. These figures show that even if exports have broken new records to top the five-billion-dollar mark, the trade surplus (416 million dollars) is the lowest since early 2001 because of a 40 percent surge in imports. Argentina could potentially import its way out of inflation by buying cheaper abroad although the recent restrictions on imports from China show that this is very far from being the government’s aim. Alternatively, the strategic import of capital goods could improve the chances of local supply keeping up with demand. But the pattern of imports is not moving in either of these directions — the main increase is in fuel imports to counter the growing energy shortage.
Argentina could thus import its way out of inflation but at the price of one of the twin surpluses propping up economic policy — the trade surplus. The other main pillar — the fiscal surplus — actually improved in August but on the entirely artificial basis of increased social security contributions (obtained via a pension reform shanghaiing the contributions of various state workers and an aggressive campaign against private pension funds). If prices are climbing with both pillars still in place even if faltering, many things other than inflation might well cease to exist once they go.
|
Go to top
|
Back to editorial
|
|
|
