East Timor hopes new leader will heal divisions

HONG KONG: The decisive victory of José Ramos-Horta in East Timor's presidential election was a significant move toward creating genuine multi-party democracy and breaking the dominance of the political organization that largely led the struggle for independence, analysts and election observers said Friday.

But they said the election of the Nobel Peace laureate Ramos-Horta to succeed the former guerrilla leader Xanana Gusmao as the country's second president was only a first step toward healing deep social and political divisions that plunged the country into widespread unrest last year, just four years after the establishment of self-government in 2002.

Ramos-Horta, who became the international face of East Timor's independence struggle over the 24 years of Indonesian occupation - lobbying the United Nations and foreign governments for support - won 69 percent of the vote in a second-round run-off Wednesday, according to a provisional count issued Friday by the electoral commission. In an election that foreign observers described as well-administered and peaceful, his opponent, Francisco Guterres, a former rebel fighter popularly known as Lu'Olo, won 31 percent. Official results were to be announced Wednesday, but Guterres conceded defeat Friday. Ramos-Horta is to be sworn in on May 20.

The election result was a blow to Guterres's political party, Fretilin, which has dominated the government since East Timor won its independence. Fretilin is the party most closely associated with the struggle for self-rule. Its now-disbanded military wing, Falintil, waged the guerrilla war against Indonesia from 1975, and Guterres was one of the rebel army's most prominent commanders.

Fretilin now faces an uphill battle to retain control of government in parliamentary elections scheduled for June 30, when it will compete with 15 other parties. Among them is a new party led by Gusmao, who commanded the guerrilla forces before being captured in 1992. He chose not to seek re-election as president so he could run for the prime minister's office, the real seat of power in East Timor.

Analysts and election observers said Friday that the weakening of Fretilin's grip on power, as suggested by the election results, could open the way for a more vibrant democracy.

"Nobody would have believed before that Fretilin would have won only a quarter of the votes," Javier Pomes Ruíz, chief of the European Union election observer mission, said in an interview by telephone. "Fretilin was hegemonic."

He added: "This is the beginning of a multiparty system in East Timor."

Still, it remains to be seen whether the election will help to bring about more effective government and to mend the divisions in East Timorese society. Since independence, popular frustration with politicians has been building steadily because of their failure to meet expectations of job creation, poverty reduction and providing basic services.

United Nations officials in Dili, the capital, say one of the fundamental weaknesses of the government has been the lack of administrative capability to implement programs approved in the budget. This has led to delays in government spending on improved infrastructure and services. At the same time, private investment has been low.

Unemployment in Dili, where about a quarter of the work force lives, is about 27 percent, the World Bank said in a recent report. Among the youth of the city, the figure is about 40 percent, creating a breeding ground for lawlessness.

Tensions boiled over in April 2006. East Timor was plunged into a political and security crisis after about 40 percent of the army went on strike over alleged discrimination in promotions and compensation.

The government, under Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri, the Fretilin secretary general, fired the striking soldiers, sparking a wave of violence in which about 150,000 people were driven from their homes and 37 were killed.

An Australian peacekeeping force was deployed to restore order. Alkatiri was forced to resign as prime minister in July, and Ramos-Horta, who was then foreign minister, stepped in to succeed him.

Ramos-Horta, 57, pledged Friday to dedicate his presidency to healing the wounds exposed by the violence last year. He started that process immediately after his victory became clear by contacting the defeated Guterres and meeting with Alkatiri.

"I will be working with my colleagues in the government, my colleagues in political parties, the church, with the outgoing president to further stabilize the country, consolidate our democracy and bring jobs to the people," Ramos-Horta said, Bloomberg News reported.

Yet the presidency is largely a ceremonial position and the real contest for power will be the parliamentary elections, which will decide the party or coalition that will govern and who will be prime minister.