So solid?
Mar 29th 2007
From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire
Saudi Arabia's peacemaking efforts may not be sustained
The gathering of Arab heads of state in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, is aimed, according to the hosts, at restoring Arab solidarity in the face of immediate political threats facing the region, as well as long-term economic and developmental challenges. To this end King Abdullah bin Abdel-Aziz has revived the Arab-Israeli peace plan that first saw the light at the Beirut summit in 2002 (and has languished in obscurity ever since) and has applied himself, with varying results, to settling internecine conflicts in the Palestinian Territories and Lebanon. He has also placed education and the need to invest in research and development high up on the summit's agenda.
Reluctant leaders
Twelve ago, at the sparsely attended previous Arab summit in Khartoum, Saudi Arabia gave every indication of having washed its hands of common Arab endeavours. It was represented at that meeting by the labour minister, Ghaza al-Gosaibi, a commoner, and placed on record its intention to waive its right to host the subsequent meeting. However, as the Arab world lurched from crisis to crisis, with Iraq's civil conflict becoming steadily more brutal by the day, Lebanon threatening to implode, the Palestinians at each other's throats and Iran casting a lengthening shadow over the region, Saudi Arabia has come to recognise that it cannot afford to duck the responsibilities that come with its enormous economic and financial power.
Having taken up the gauntlet of providing leadership to a rudderless Arab world, Saudi Arabia has chalked up some successes. The most significant has been to nip the Palestinian civil war in the bud, an initiative that has seen the formation of a new government comprising ministers from the antagonistic Hamas and Fatah factions as well as a number of well-regarded independents. Saudi Arabia has also devoted considerable attention to Iran, although as yet with little concrete results to show for these efforts. Another work in progress is Lebanon, represented at the Riyadh summit by two distinct delegations, one headed by the prime minister, Fouad Siniora, the other by the president, Emile Lahoud. Saudi Arabia almost certainly shares the conviction of the EU and the US that Syria is playing a major role in prolonging the Lebanese political crisis (a purely internal Lebanese affair, according to Damascus). However, Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, was greeted cordially by King Abdullah on his arrival in Riyadh, having declared in several recent interviews with Saudi and other Gulf newspapers his great esteem for the Saudi monarch. This was as close to an apology as Mr Assad was prepared to get for his remarks last August describing the leaders of certain Arab states as "half men"—widely assumed to include Saudi Arabia.
Planning for peace
The main business of the summit is the reaffirmation of the Arab peace plan, and the establishment of a mechanism to follow it through. The plan offers recognition of and normal relations with Israel on the part of all the Arab states if Israel commits to withdrawing from all of the remaining occupied Palestinian and Syrian territories, allowing the creation of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, and enabling Palestinian refugees to exercise their right of return in accordance with UN General Assembly resolution 194.
Israel and the US have been pressing for the plan to be changed so as to allow for more flexibility on the territorial and refugee questions. However, Saudi Arabia has maintained that the plan must remain essentially the same. The summit is expected to announce the formation of a quartet of Arab states to follow up the plan—mirroring the road map quartet of the US, the EU, the UN and Russia. It is likely to be made up of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and the UAE. Syria has indicated that it is prepared to go along with this, although its foreign minister, Walid al-Moallem, has questioned the need for Arab states that have yet to sign treaties with Israel to offer recognition of the Jewish state in advance of a comprehensive settlement. Syria's priority at the conference will be to ensure that any statement on Lebanon takes into account the views of the opposition as well as those of the Siniora government. There could be heated exchanges on this matter. Syria will also be concerned to tone down any hostile references towards its chief regional ally, Iran.
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