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Schneider: Framing the debate

Will the elections be about terrorism or Iraq?

By Bill Schneider
CNN Senior Political Analyst

Whether U.S. soldiers should be withdrawn from Iraq will be a key issue in this year's political campaigns.

CNN Poll

This story is based on a poll of 1,033 adult Americans that was conducted August 18-20 by telephone for CNN by Opinion Research Corporation. It has a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

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Who's winning war on terror? (1:59)

• Complete poll results (PDF)

• Poll: GOP better on terrorism

• Bush: Withdrawal would be a disaster

• Opposition to war at all-time high

• Bush approval ratings remain weak

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LOS ANGELES, California (CNN) -- In politics, you have to frame the debate. That's what both parties are trying to do right now.

Republicans want to frame the debate around the war on terror. Why? Because they believe it's their issue.

Is it? The latest CNN poll shows Americans think Republicans in Congress would do a better job dealing with terrorism than Democrats. But not by a big margin -- 48 to 38 percent. (Full story)

Democrats want to frame the debate around the war in Iraq. Why? Same reason. Americans believe Democrats would do a better job than Republicans dealing with Iraq. Again, by a narrow margin -- 47 to 41 percent. ( Poll results)

The poll results mean that most Americans do not see either party with a decisive advantage on terrorism or on Iraq.

Most Americans have made up their minds about one thing -- they're fed up with Iraq. Nearly two-thirds of Americans oppose the war. Only 35 percent support it. That's the lowest level of support we've ever seen in one of our polls.

Things have gotten so bad in Iraq, it may have soured the public's view of the war on terror. Just over one-third of Americans believe the United States and its allies are winning the war on terror. The prevailing view? No one is winning.

President Bush wants to flip that around. He's trying to rebuild support for the war in Iraq by persuading people that it's part of the war on terror. "I repeat what our leading general said in the region,'' President Bush said at his news conference on Monday. "He said that if we withdraw before the job is done, the enemy will follow us here. I strongly agree with that.''

Do the American people agree with that? No, they don't. Fifty-two percent believe the war in Iraq is a distraction from the war on terror, compared with 44 percent who feel, as President Bush does, that Iraq is an essential part of the war on terror.

Most Democrats favor a timetable for withdrawing U.S. forces from Iraq. Republicans have seized on that to argue that Democrats would leave the nation vulnerable to terrorists.

"If leading Democrats had their way, their policies would make our nation weaker and the enemies of our nation would be stronger,'' White House political strategist Karl Rove told a Republican fundraiser in Texas this month. "That is a stark fact of modern life, and it is the issue on which the forthcoming election should center.''

Most Americans are not buying it. They do not believe the outcome of this year's congressional election will have any effect on the chances of a terrorist attack.

The campaign is just beginning, but so far Iraq is what's framing the debate. It's the issue that shapes people's assessment of President Bush and influences their vote for Congress. And for most Americans, President Bush has failed to connect Iraq with the war on terror. That gives Democrats an opening. But Democrats still need to convince most Americans that they have a better plan for Iraq.