It Makes a Difference to the Sheep

While reading through an old Akira Iriye essay I stumbled across the following prediction by John Hobson (one of the first scholars to write about imperialism) more than a century ago:

It is at least conceivable that China might so turn the tables upon the Western industrial nations, and, either by adopting their capital and organizers, or as is more probable, by substituting her own, might flood their markets with her cheaper manufactures, and refusing their imports in exchange might take her payments in liens upon their capital, reversing the earlier process of investment until she gradually gained financial control over her quondam patrons and civilizers.

Anyone who notices all the "Made in China" labels at Wal-Mart and who has paid attention to the tumbling dollar and the fact that China owns a good chunk of the U.S. national debt would have to think that Hobson may have got it right.

of Libya taken by Michael Totten can be viewed here. Tripoli seems depressing but Ghadami is striking (if apparently empty).

is already making an impact in East Asia (for text and analysis of the act, see here). It is encouraging more North Koreans to defect:

Word of the U.S. North Korean Human Rights Act has spread quickly among defectors in China, Russia and other countries, as well as to citizens in the communist state, a nongovernmental organization says.

Tim Peters, founder of Helping Hands Korea who has spoken with people in China recently, said news of the bill may encourage North Koreans to defect or refugees to seek asylum when previously they would have been "less inclined to do so."

And it is dividing the NGO community as they differ over the political implications of the act:

The bond between various NGOs appears to be unraveling because of the controversial act.

Based on U.S. human rights laws that preceded the Iraq conflict, the North Korean bill is a pretext for war, said Lee Seung-yong, who represented aid group Good Friends.

But not all NGOs attending felt so bitterly about the act, though many had suspicions that it was pushed through by hawks in Washington who favor a regime change in North Korea.

"We don't believe in vilifying North Korea, like what the U.S. is doing," said Park Jeong-eun of the Center for Peace and Disarmament.

and as they compete for the cash that the act provides:

NGOs will get a boost from the U.S. Congress since the act provides for $20 million annually to efforts related to North Korean defectors.

But Hong fears competition for funding will hurt relationships between NGOs and new groups will form to try to get the money.

The act and the reactions to it also highlight the dramatic shift in basic foreign policy orientation of both "liberals" and "(neo) conservatives":

Peters, who intertwines his work with Christian missionary efforts, has not changed his approach to helping North Koreans in the last 15 years. Years ago society labeled him as liberal, leftist and even a socialist, but now he's being lumped in with neoconservatives.

All this and the act hasn't even officially taken effect yet.

I have no first-hand knowledge but if I had to guess, I'd say that the act is having precisely the impact its creators intended.

As any North Korea-watcher well knows, the DPRK has generally been less than cooperative with most NGOs and humanitarian aid organizations who have sought to monitor the delivery of their assistance to ensure that it reaches the intended audience. With this in mind, the Eugene Bell Foundation announces some good news:

This delegation found that EugeneBell's system for delivering supplies has finally won wide acceptance within North Korea's medical establishment. The "EB System," also includes regular site visits by Korean-speaking monitors to each enrolled institution, an equipment maintenance and repair program, and periodic reports on equipment and medication usage by local care-givers.

This fall, the delegation was able to make all the necessary site visits, confirmed that almost 100% of all donations reached their proper destinations, repaired all broken equipment at the institutions visited, and collected essential data from local healthcare givers. "We now have a proven capacity to deliver individualized 'packages' of assistance to any enrolled medial facility and to make the follow-up visits needed to insure that the 'system' continues to run smoothly and transparently," said Linton. "An efficient, effective and transparent delivery system is essential if medical assistance is to advance beyond basic medicines," he added.

"This exciting new breakthrough, the fruit of several years of serious effort, has come in the middle of a standoff over North Korea' nuclear program,"Linton noted. "This suggests that EugeneBell has now reached a point where its work need not be held hostage to diplomatic tensions. Clearly, now is the time to begin providing real help to local hospitals."

Keep up the good work!

is on a roll. Check out her unscheduled appearance on Pat Robertson's CBN in which she defends the stranglehold of the powers of darkness on American universities (as well as her Second Amendment rights). See also what happens when "intellectual diversity" and poetry reading combine (it ain't pretty).

Yesterday was about as good a Thanksgiving as one could ask for. We started the morning with a Turkey Trot race (1 mile for Jon; 5k for me) along with about 1500 other crazy local people. The rest of the day was spent cooking, eating, and chatting. Couldn't ask for much better. Some photos:


Good food

Mmmmm ... Pie! 

A nice backyard 

Good kids 

Despite best harvest in decade, North Korea still expected to be dependent on foreign aid for food next year, UN says:

North Korea’s food harvests for the 2004-2005 season is expected to be its best in a decade, with some 4.1 million tons of rice, corn and other grain being produced, a joint report by the UN’s World Food Program (WFP) and Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) says. A statement was released by the UN agencies following a visit by officials from the WFP and FAO in September and October. The production is up approximately 2.4 percent from a year earlier and is the fourth consecutive year of increase, according to the UN agencies. However, the UN agencies warn that they will still need some 500,000 tons of food aid in 2005 to feed the nations most vulnerable—some 6.1 million children, pregnant women, and elderly. The UN agencies also warn that some modest reforms for the country’s planned economy to a more market based one have caused prices to go up while wages were cut, making it increasingly difficult for people to afford food.

Sigh.

from North Korea include a public Japanese acknowledgment of the possibility of regime change and tales of high-level military defections (see NYT article here; free registration required).

After weeks of reports from North Korea of defecting generals, antigovernment posters and the disappearance of portraits of the country's ruler, the leader of Japan's governing party warned Sunday of the prospects of "regime change" in North Korea.

....
In Seoul, an editor at Monthly Chosun, a magazine that closely follows North Korean affairs, said in an interview that when he was in northern China earlier this year, Chinese officials showed him North Korean wanted posters for generals who had managed to reach China with their families. The editor, who asked not to be identified, estimated that in recent years, 130 North Korean generals had defected to China, about 10 percent of the military elite.

Of this group, the most significant, he said, are four who have been integrated into active duty with the Chinese military in the Shenyang district, along the Korean border.

Last May, Lt. Gen. O Se Ok, a rising member of the military elite, left the North Korean port of Chongjin by boat, met a Japanese boat in the Sea of Japan and eventually made his way to the United States, according to NHK television of Japan and Kazuhiro Araki, a professor of Korean politics at Takushoku University in Japan. The general's 73-year-old father, O Kuk Ryol, ranked second on the Central Military Commission at the time, after Kim Jong Il.

Some see a potential China-instigated coup in the works:

Now, the South Korean editor speculated, China may be forming a fallback plan should Kim Jong Il prove incapable of reforming or holding on to power. "The scenario the Chinese are looking into is to make a buffer regime through such North Korean general defectors,"

But, the DPRK still officially denies anything out of the ordinary is going on:

Li Sang Su, an official with the Korea News Service, which distributes reports of the North Korean news agency in Japan, said the portrait change was merely a routine updating of images.

"They change the portraits after some years to new ones because the portraits get worn and the person gets older," he said.

On Friday, China's official New China News Agency carried an interview with a North Korean Foreign Ministry official, Ri Gyong Son, who attributed reports about the disappearing portraits to the United States and its allies who "want to overthrow" Mr. Kim.

of the missing portraits of "Leader" (no longer Dear?) Kim Jong Il. See here for details (thanks to Ace of Spades for the link).


Before 

After