Both the New York Times and the Washington Post are reporting that analysis of nuclear material samples obtained from Libya has concluded “with 90 percent certainty” that the materials originated in the DPRK:
Nine months ago, international inspectors came up with the first evidence that the North may have provided Libya with nearly two tons of uranium hexaflouride, the material that can be fed into nuclear centrifuges and enriched into bomb fuel. Libya surrendered its huge cask of the highly toxic material to the United States when it dismantled its nuclear program last year.
Now, intelligence officials say, extensive testing conducted at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee over the last several months has concluded that the material did not originate in Pakistan or other suspect countries, and one official said that “with a certainty of 90 percent or better, this stuff’s from North Korea.”
It is unclear if there are any dissenting views in the government, though some outside experts have accused the administration of overstating intelligence on North Korea. Officials cautioned that the analysis of the uranium had been hampered by the fact that the United States has no sample of known North Korean uranium for comparison with the Libya material. The study was done by eliminating other possible sources of uranium, a result that is less certain than the nuclear equivalent of matching DNA samples.
One recently retired Pentagon official who has long experience dealing with North Korea said the new finding was “huge, because it changes the whole equation with the North.”
The U.S. is apparently taking the news seriously, to put it mildly:
Two senior officials on the National Security Council, Michael J. Green and William Tobey, told key officials in Asia about the alarming intelligence, a U.S. official said last night. He said the “sole reason” for the trip – officially billed as consultations about possible talks with North Korea about its nuclear program – was to brief Japan, South Korea and China about the information.
According to the Chosun Ilbo, however, at least one South Korean official said Green didn’t discuss North Korea’s reported nuke sales, but instead focused on restarting the six-party talks. Whatever.
Hard to make out a “Korean media response” as of yet, although the NYT and WaPo reports have gotten pretty wide coverage. A couple of reports, for example, in the Chosun Ilbo (English), JoongAng Ilbo (Korean) and Kyunghyang Shinmun (Korean) suggest that the neocons might be making a “media play” ahead of the State of the Union Address, especially because Bush is likely to refrain from calling Kim Jong-il dirty names. Meanwhile, according to the Chosun Ilbo, South Korean officials are not taking the reports seriously:
Privately, South Korean government officials were suspicious of the intention of the U.S media reports Wednesday. With U.S. President Bush’s key State of the Union address only a day away, the two major U.S. newspapers – the New York Times as well as the Post – both carried similar reports on North Korea’s nuclear program on the front page. Korean officials suspect that someone planted the reports.
Two interpretations suggest themselves. One group says that as the second Bush administration favors negotiations over putting pressure on the Stalinist country, U.S. hardliners are spreading misinformation against North Korea. Another school of thought says the Bush administration itself is trying to keep the pressure up and therefore fed the story to the papers. South Korean Foreign Ministry officials are not taking the reports seriously.
Well, Michael Green will be meeting with more Korean officials tomorrow, presumably in an effort to get people to take the reports seriously.