The New York Yankees won 125 games last season. Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa created a larger stir, but the Yankees were the story -- a ball club for all time that, this year, appears set to climb into the dynasty category with their third World Championship in four seasons.
The story in the competitive world of Major League Baseball this year takes the form of an obvious question: Can anyone beat the Yankees? Their acquisition of Roger Clemens at the start of spring training immediately won christening from some quarters. But the games have only just begun.
The first week of the season, though never definitive, was good for some clues. Through one week, the American League races expected since New Year's Day had already begun to materialize. The National League has built in a bit more variability, but the expected winners will be there in the end.
Though they are three years removed from their last pennant, any analysis of the National League has to begin with the Atlanta Braves -- the league's best club, year in and year out. The last two seasons have seen the Florida Marlins and San Diego Padres sneak past them in the playoffs, but those pennant winners rebuild while the Braves reload.
This season, though, has unveiled a possibility that the Braves' spring charm of the last two seasons has run out. At the beginning of spring training, they learned that their first baseman, Andres Galarraga, would miss the season with cancer. In the first week of the season, relief ace Mark Wohlers regressed to the unfortunate mental state that leaves him without prayer of throwing strikes.
Kerry Ligtenberg, who stood in for Wolhers last season, is recovering from elbow surgery and the Braves, who have never established a consistent closer during the regime of manager Bobby Cox and pitching coach Leo Mazzone, now are using young left-hander John Rocker and right-hander Kevin McGlinchy to finish games.
Without Galarraga, the Braves' batting order lacks the thumper that has defined their offense since Fred McGriff joined the club in 1993. Chipper Jones, who has thrived in the early years of his career as a supporting hitter, now must be the main power source. Ryan Klesko, taking over at first base, will have to reverse his three-year production decline. Outfielders Brian Jordan and Andruw Jones both are very talented, but neither has broken through as a star.
The Braves will go as far as pitching and defense take them. That hasn't always been the case.
Only one club in the National League can legitimately be said, like the Yankees, to have everything. The Los Angeles Dodgers spent a lot of money and, unlike the Baltimore Orioles, they spent it pretty well.
Not only were the Dodgers off to a 5-1 start, but they will improve through the year because they have the money to add parts and the field management to integrate them. Manager Davey Johnson, who wins everywhere he goes, can't miss with this club, though its middle defense is shaky.
The Dodgers don't have a dog among their top four starters, and there aren't many more trustworthy relievers than Jeff Shaw. Right fielder Raul Mondesi appears to be set for a huge season and, if second baseman Eric Young has the kind of season his first week suggests, the club has a true leadoff threat.
But the Dodgers are in for the occasional remarkable challenge from the San Francisco Giants, who, every now and then, have one of those years. This season, like 1987, 1993 and 1997, looks like one of those years. There's no reason why the Giants should be good. And true, their eighth-inning offense at Cinergy Field last week was just as indicative of the Reds' weak bullpen.
But this is the Giants' last season on Candlestick Point, Barry Bonds can still win a lot of games by himself, Dusty Baker is one of the most constructive and respected managers around and the Giants have a way of going bonkers when no one expects it. Last year, they made a late run for a wild card berth, challenging the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets.
The Cubs won that battle last season, but it's no cinch they will even be in the battle this year. Early on, their pitching looks suspect, and the offense is built around too few hitters. They won't blow many leads late in the game, because they have Rod Beck, but taking the lead that far could be the problem.
The Mets will be an interesting club this year, probably the wild card favorite. Taking a page out of the Yankees' book, they have assembled a lot of hitters who understand the strike zone -- Ricky Henderson, Robin Ventura, Mike Piazza, Bobby Bonilla, John Olerud and Edgardo Alfonso. Their bullpen betrayed them quite often last year and their starting rotation doesn't scare anyone, but their infield defense is strong enough to bail out mediocre pitching.
The NL Central's standard passed from the Reds to the Houston Astros in 1996, and the Astros show few signed of giving it up this season. The Astros aren't as good as they'd like to be, but they'll be good enough to hang on again.
Likewise, they probably won't be good enough to survive the first round of the National League playoffs. Figure on the Dodgers winning the West and beating the wild-card Mets in the first round, while the Braves take out Houston. The Dodgers can match the Braves' starting pitching and surpass them in enough other phases to win a World Series entrance.
In the American League East, the Yankees could be in for competition from the Boston Red Sox, who might run Pedro Martinez, a renewed Bret Saberhagen and recovering Ramon Martinez as their top three starters by mid summer. Should the Reds Sox win the American League wild card berth -- and they should -- that three-man rotation and Tom Gordon's closing prowess will make them a postseason threat. The Baltimore Orioles will hit home runs and blow too many rundown plays to compete for a playoff position.
Also writing an early ticket to the postseason are the Cleveland Indians, who will be mailing it in again by August. After a week of games, they already had a two game lead with no other American League Central team hoisting a winning record.
In the AL West, Texas, Anaheim and Seattle all had their problems, all won three of six and all tied for first place. The Angels might be the best club in the division, but they've already been into a run of terrible luck. Shortstop Gary DiSarcena hurt himself on the first day of spring training and Mo Vaughn busted an ankle trying to catch a foul ball in the Angels' opener.
Texas and Seattle flash lots of offense and are seriously lacking in pitching depth. One of the three clubs will win 87 games and the division championship, but it really doesn't matter -- the Yankees will be waiting to eliminate them in the first round of the playoffs.
Already, it seemed safe to set the American League playoffs: Yankees vs. AL West champ, Indians vs. Red Sox and Yankees vs. Indians for the World Series berth.
During the post-strike era, the Indians have been to the World Series twice without breaking a regular season sweat or developing a top-rung starting pitcher. Offensively, they're just about impossible to stop.
Defensively, no club is better set up the middle than the Indians. Their batting order is loaded with hitters who can jack it. They could win the division easily if their pitching staff weren't half as good as it is.
Dave Burba and Charles Nagy are solid veterans, both of whom won 15 games last season. But the Indians don't have the guy who can match up in Game One or Game Seven of a postseason series against the likes of Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux or Kevin Brown. Mike Jackson broke through last year as the closer, but he never before thrived on the responsibility and it remains to be seen if he can repeat.
The story this year for the Indians is the progress of their starting pitching, particularly Bartolo Colon and Jaret Wright. Both have been around for so long that it's easy to forget they're just 23 years old.
Last year, manager Mike Hargrove burned out Colon before the All-Star break, leaving him useless for the playoffs. Wright went through growing pains and control problems during the season's second half. If Hargrove handles one or both of them well enough during the regular season, the Indians might develop the ace they need from their own ranks.
For purposes of making the baseball season worth following, then, three teams besides the Yankees bear watching. Cleveland, Atlanta and Los Angeles can beat the Yankees.
Very well. But will they? Until the Yankees are beaten, they're the team to beat.
