NEW YORK - After years of heated bickering over
whether to expense stock options, the debate within corporate
America is shifting to an even thornier question: how to value
them.
The question may sound like one that occupies the minds of
gray-haired accountants with a penchant for arcane accounting
intricacies. But corporate America has plenty at stake on the
issue -- the effect of stock option expenses on earnings are
directly related to how they are valued.
"The great debate used to be whether to expense options or
not. Now the great debate going forward will be how to value
options," said Standard & Poor's accounting analyst Robert
Friedman. "How to expense options, how to standardize options
-- it's all up in the air."
Doling out stock options, which give employees the right to
buy a company's shares at a future date, became a popular way
to attract talent cheaply during the tech boom of the 1990s.
Accounting rules don't require companies to deduct stock option
costs from profits, and they even receive a tax benefit in the
process. As a result, several critics such as billionaire
investor Warren Buffett have said not expensing options
overstates profits enormously.
In recent weeks, several companies from General Electric
Co. (GE.N) to Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN.O) have agreed to expense
options in a bid to regain the confidence of investors tired of
witnessing one accounting scandal after the other. Stock
options weren't at the heart of the scandals, but many suggest
they provided the incentive for executives to cook the books.
But already, several companies -- particularly technology
companies that would be hit the hardest by expensing options --
have held up the valuation placard as the main reason they
won't jump on the popular bandwagon. Many, like Cisco Systems
Inc. (CSCO.O) point to the difficulty in putting a price on a
stock options and how the derived value is largely subjective,
depending on the assumptions and option pricing-model chosen.
"There are many different ways to value options. All we
know is that none of them are right -- they are all guesses,"
John Kanas, CEO of North Fork Bancorp Inc. (NFB.N) told
Reuters. North Fork is waiting for a regulatory agency to lay
down some rules before it expenses options, Kanas said.
Several accounting and valuation experts, on the other
hand, consider the argument a weak excuse. They say other items
found on a company's profit statement such as goodwill and
depreciation are harder to value. In any case, it's better to
record a slightly inaccurate figure than the current practice
of recording nothing at all, they say.
"These are just the howls of protest against having to
recognize economic reality," said Bennett Stewart, a partner at
Stern Stewart & Co., which provides valuation services.
VALUATION WOES
Nevertheless, hanging a price tag on stock options is a
complicated issue. Adding to the confusion is that companies
can choose from a number of methods such as the popular
Black-Scholes model or the binomial model to value stock
options, making it hard to compare earnings, analysts say.
For example, soft drink company Coca-Cola Co. (KO.N), which
kicked off the trend toward expensing options last month,
surprised veteran valuation experts by saying it would hand the
task of valuing options to its investment bankers. But rival
PepsiCo Inc. (PEP.N) uses the Black-Scholes model to arrive at
the stock option expense it discloses in its footnotes.
"As long as everyone were treated the same, we could care
less," said North Fork's Kanas.
In addition, each model itself relies on a number of
subjective assumptions, such as stock price volatility, or
their tendency to rise or fall in a time period. Volatility is
particularly hard to predict and is often based on the past.
In fact, companies in the same sector use wildly different
assumptions for expected volatility, further clouding the
picture. Within the applications software sector, for example,
Manhattan Associates Inc. assumes volatility of 122 percent,
while Oracle Corp. assumes 57 percent volatility, according to
a research report by Credit Suisse First Boston.
"The problem is that valuation is an imperfect science,
it's not subject to a cookbook calculation," said Anthony
Aaron, a partner at accounting firm Ernst & Young's valuation
services group. "If it's garbage in, it'll be garbage out."
In particular, the Black-Scholes model, the most popular
method of valuing options, has come under blistering attack
from companies.
For starters, the model was never designed for employee
stock options. It tends to overstate option costs because it
assumes that options can be freely traded, although employee
options cannot.
In addition, the model is meant for options that have a
three- to nine-month timeframe even though most stock options
vest over several years, said Aaron. Procter & Gamble Co.
(PG.N), for example, last week said it would be prepared to
expense stock options but complained that the Black-Scholes
model wasn't applicable to longer-term employee stock options.
RELEGATED TO THE FOOTNOTES
Still, companies have been reporting stock option expense
in their footnotes for years and so have already crossed the
valuation bridge, valuation experts such as Alfred King, vice
chairman of Valuation Research Corp. point out.
"They are difficult to value, but you can make a reasonable
estimate," said Credit Suisse First Boston accounting analyst
David Zion. "I think a reasonable estimate is better than what
we have today, which is usually nothing."
Under current U.S. accounting rules, companies have the
option of treating stock options as an expense or simply
disclosing it in the footnotes of their annual report.
The issue is a tough one for corporate America because
expensing stock options takes a hefty chunk out of profits,
especially for technology companies that lavishly doled out
options during the dot-com boom. Profits at S&P; 500 companies,
for example, would have been 20 percent lower last year if they
had expensed options, a recent Bear Stearns study showed.
Not surprisingly, U.S. corporations have bitterly fought
efforts to make that mandatory. In the mid-1990s, they lobbied
fiercely to beat back a proposal by U.S. accounting rulemakers
that would have made stock option expensing mandatory.
Since then, companies have successfully kept stock option
costs hidden away in the footnotes where they receive little
attention. But accounting rulemakers are currently exploring
the impact of requiring companies to report stock option
expenses on their income statement.
One way or the other, the winds of stock option change seem
to be headed corporate America's way.